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Hello from New York,

A wiser writer than I am would not try to predict the outcome of America’s presidential election, even with one day to go. Polls suggest this race cannot sensibly be called. Our forecast model, having nudged in favour of Donald Trump late in October, has shifted back to what is, in effect, a dead heat. The Democratic candidate just got a zinger of a boost from a hugely respected poll, the Selzer survey in Iowa. That suggests she will do far better in the Hawkeye State than most had previously thought, and thus across the Midwest. 

Maybe. As a former correspondent in the Midwest, I’m rooting for the region to be the decisive arena. I’d also love to see Americans get around to electing their first female president. Doing so is a welcome mark of liberal democracy: leave it to horrible authoritarian regimes in places such as Russia or China to refuse to let women near the top of most power structures.  

And yet. And yet. Trump supporters have every reason to hope. These days voters love to batter incumbent parties. They do so all over the world—for a heartwarming example, see what happened in Botswana on Friday. The only reason America might be different is the weakness of the Republican candidate. Still, by the end of Tuesday some 75m Americans will have given their votes to the Dona...