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America’s pollsters would rather forget the past two presidential elections. In 2016 they accurately predicted Hillary Clinton’s margin in the popular vote, but failed to account for a Republican surge in swing states across the Midwest, which were crucial to Donald Trump’s victory. And in 2020 pollsters expected Joe Biden to win with an 8.4-point margin in the popular vote; it turned out to be about half that. This year Mr Biden was trailing Mr Trump by three points in the national vote before the Democrats switched horses.
The gambit seems to have worked, for now: our daily updated poll tracker puts Kamala Harris three points ahead of Mr Trump nationally. Democrats will pray that pollsters have got it right this time. Even if they have, such a margin may not be enough to overcome a big electoral-college disadvantage in November. After all, Republicans have won three of the past six elections, but led the popular vote in only one.
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"The Economist via LinkedIn" <newsletters-noreply@linkedin.com>
-04:56 - 30 Okt. 2024
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