Enjoying this newsletter? Sign up for free here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every Saturday. You’ll also get our weekly newsletter with an exclusive introduction from our editor-in-chief.
America’s pollsters would rather forget the past two presidential elections. In 2016 they accurately predicted Hillary Clinton’s margin in the popular vote, but failed to account for a Republican surge in swing states across the Midwest, which were crucial to Donald Trump’s victory. And in 2020 pollsters expected Joe Biden to win with an 8.4-point margin in the popular vote; it turned out to be about half that. This year Mr Biden was trailing Mr Trump by three points in the national vote before the Democrats switched horses.
The gambit seems to have worked, for now: our daily updated poll tracker puts Kamala Harris three points ahead of Mr Trump nationally. Democrats will pray that pollsters have got it right this time. Even if they have, such a margin may not be enough to overcome a big electoral-college disadvantage in November. After all, Republicans have won three of the past six elections, but led the popular vote in only one.
by
"The Economist via LinkedIn" <newsletters-noreply@linkedin.com>
-04:56 - 30 Oct 2024
Die Wahrung Ihrer Privatsphäre ist unsere Priorität.
„Wir verwenden Cookies, um das Beste aus Kakao und Webseiten zu holen. Damit alles reibungslos läuft – von Datenschutz bis Kakao! Akzeptiere unsere Cookies und erleben unsere Seite in voller Geschmackstiefe oder passe die Einstellungen ganz nach deinem Geschmack an.“
Mehr über unsere Cookies und wie wir sie verwenden, erfährst du in unserer Cookie-Richtlinien.
